Crypto News

Leading Crypto Exchanges See Negative Funding Rates, Have The Bears Taken Over?

Prices have been declining across the crypto market and with it has come to a lot of doubt on the part of investors. This is reflected in the deposit and withdrawal trends recorded across the various crypto exchanges. One of these has been the funding rates which had remained flat for the better part of the first half of 2022. However, there has now been some movement in the funding rates and it is unfortunately not for the better. Funding Rates Turn Negative Two leading crypto exchanges have seen negative crypto funding rates for the past week. Binance and ByBit consistently appear on the top of the list for the exchanges with the most trading volume and have become a natural home for perpetual traders. That is why changes across these platforms can be significant to market movements. Related Reading | Holding Back The Bears: Why Bitcoin Must Break $22,500 Funding rates have been fluctuating at and below neutral for the better part of the month but the latter looks to have finally won out. After bitcoin had dropped below $20,000 last week, expectations had been that more traders would want to get in given the low prices. However, it has gone the other way as average funding rates are now in the negative. Both Binance and ByBit have recorded average funding rates of -0.0015 for last week. A significant drop from the neutral 0.01% average aggregated funding rates. What this shows is that the bearish sentiment among the perp traders has been growing. As such, they have been leaning towards short traders. Funding rates turn negative | Source: Arcane Research It comes hot on the heels of open interest reaching a new high. Most of which have come from both Binance and ByBit. These two metrics expressly show that short traders are more active compared to their long counterparts. Crypto Sentiment Still Bad Crypto perp traders are not the only ones that are currently bearish on the market. The same is the case across the space where investors have chosen to hold their cards closer to their chest than they normally would. The Fear & Greed Index puts the crypto market sentiment in the extreme fear territory for another day yet again. Meaning that the market has now closed out two consecutive months with the extreme fear sentiment. Total market cap falls below $900 billion | Source: Crypto Total Market Cap on TradingView.com This is apparent in the exchange inflows and outflows, both of which have declined in the last couple of days. However, the ratio of inflows to outflows shows that investors are refusing to take any risk in the market. Bitcoin’s net flows came out to -$29.7 million after outflows had touched $901.6 million for the past day, according to Glassnode. 📊 Daily On-Chain Exchange Flow#Bitcoin $BTC➡️ $872.0M in⬅️ $901.6M out📉 Net flow: -$29.7M#Ethereum $ETH➡️ $261.0M in⬅️ $211.2M out📈 Net flow: +$49.8M#Tether (ERC20) $USDT➡️ $221.3M in⬅️ $207.1M out📈 Net flow: +$14.2Mhttps://t.co/dk2HbGwhVw — glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) July 1, 2022 Related Reading | Bitcoin Records Worst Performance For June, Will It Get Better From Here? Tether inflows have remained muted as investors are sentiment less money into exchanges to purchase tokens. With positive net flow only coming out to $14.2 million for the past day. Sell-offs have also continued, threatening to drag the market even lower. Featured image from Analytics Insight, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com Follow Best Owie on Twitter for market insights, updates, and the occasional funny tweet…

Bitcoin Crypto News

$15k Possible Bottom For Bitcoin? “Delta Cap” Says So

The “delta capitalization” model of Bitcoin may suggest that around $15k could be a possible bottom for the crypto’s price. Past Delta Cap Trend Shows Bitcoin May Still Face More Decline Before A Bottom As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC market cap is now below the realized cap, but still above the delta cap. Before taking a look at the data, it’s best to first get a basic grasp of the three major capitalization models for Bitcoin. The normal market cap is calculated by just taking the total number of coins currently in circulation and multiplying it by the price of BTC right now. The “realized cap” works a bit differently; instead of multiplying all the coins by the same price, this model weighs each coin by the price it was last moved at. Related Reading | USDC Exchange Reserves Rise As Investors Escape From Bitcoin For example, if there are 2 BTC in circulation and the current price is $19k, then the normal market cap is simply $38k. However, if one of these coins was last transacted at, say, $15k, and the other at $19k, then the realized cap would be $34k instead. Now, the Bitcoin “delta cap” is defined as the difference between the realized cap and the average of the market cap. The average of the normal market cap here is taken over the entire history of the crypto (and it’s naturally a moving average). The below chart shows the trend in the different market caps for BTC. The normal market cap still seems to be above the delta cap at the moment | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin market cap has recently dipped below the realized cap. However, it has still not gone down near enough to touch the delta cap. Historically, the value of the crypto has formed bottoms whenever the market cap has been between the other two caps. Related Reading | Fed Announces Inflation Warnings As Bitcoin Whales Remain In Wait Mode In 2020, the coin bottomed out after the market cap went slightly under the realized cap, but in 2018 the metric even dipped a bit below the delta cap before the bottom was in. This past trend may suggest that the point around the delta cap may be the possible lower bound for how deep the coin’s price can sink. And if so, then Bitcoin could potentially sink to or a little under $15k, before the current cap touches the delta cap and the bottom forms. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.3k, down 9% in the past week. BTC has gone down over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Dmitry Demidko on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Crypto News Ethereum

Decline In Ethereum Futures On CME Suggests Institutional Investors Are Still Bearish

Institutional investors have been bearish toward Ethereum for a while now. There have been outflows rocking the digital asset until it ended its 11-week streak with inflows for last week. However, this does not mean that positive sentiment had returned entirely to the cryptocurrency once more. The numbers on the CME show that institutional investors remain wary and even bearish toward the second-largest cryptocurrency in the market.  Ethereum Falls Into The Negative The Ether futures on the CME have been trading on a negative basis lately, which basically means they are trading below spot. This has caused the Ether Futures on the come to decline to the lowest they have ever been since inception.  The Ether-denominated open interest on the CME had previously claimed a new all-time high back in April. But since then, has continued to decline, with more drops recorded over the last weekend. This has spelled a bad streak for the month of June. Related Reading | Outflows Rock Bitcoin As Institutional Investors Pull The Plug, More Downside Coming? As the month draws to a close, the three-month Ether basis has now decoupled from bitcoin and has been trading below spot, which had been recorded on June 23rd. Hence marking the first time that the Ether basis would ever decline so low. ETH futures on CME in decline | Source: Arcane Research Asset managers have now moved to a predominantly bearish stand following this. It has been recorded that they have been net short on Ethereum since mid-June when it stood at $37 million. This number has since dropped but only slightly to be resting at the $32 million that was recorded last week. The Ether futures basis is now sitting at a -2.33% while bitcoin remains at 0.63%. ETH Struggles To Hold $1,000 The bearish sentiment towards Ethereum has not been relegated to just institutional investors alone. The spot markets are also feeling the heat as sell-offs have resumed. In light of this, the digital asset has had a hard time holding the $1,000 level. ETH struggles to hold above $1,000 | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com This level is significant for Ethereum due to the fact that there is support mounting here. However, it is a very critical technical level given that if the price were to decline below this point, resistance would quickly build up around it. Any support below $1,000 is incredibly weak, so a dip from here would likely see the price touch $800 before there is any recovery. Related Reading | Ethereum Plugs 11-Week Bleed, why $1,500 May Be On The Horizon Ethereum is now trading firmly below its 20-day moving average which has wiped out all hopes for a bullish recovery in the short term. Additionally, as the 3AC liquidation comes into focus, the implications for digital assets such as ETH remain very negative. Featured image from Admiral Markets, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com Follow Best Owie on Twitter for market insights, updates, and the occasional funny tweet…

Crypto News

Reports: FTX Targeting BlockFi Purchase At $25M

BlockFi, Celsius, Nexo, and more: tough times can lead to difficult measures, and this year’s bear market is showing no exception to some of these players. Look no further than the current state of affairs for centralized finance (CeFi) platforms, who have been facing substantial headwinds with no end in sight. Now, after days of rumors and reported exploratory deals, reports have emerged that powerhouse crypto exchange FTX is putting together the final ties around an acquisition deal of BlockFi at just a $25M valuation. The news comes after reports emerged that FTX passed on an acquisition deal for Celsius after seeing the CeFi firm’s balance sheet. BlockFi On The Block Should the purchase come to fruition at the reported valuation, it’ll be a major hit for BlockFi equity holders, following a nearly $5B valuation last year in the midst of bull market movement. However, that $25M number could move drastically between today’s reports and closing time – and a successful acquisition will of course take months to close. BlockFi CEO Zac Prince described the number as “market rumors” and outright denied the number, stating in a tweet that “we aren’t being sold for $25M.” FTX is on the shortlist of exchanges that have sought out opportunity in the midst of crypto market downturn, exploring buyouts or equity share purchases for both Celsius and BlockFi in recent weeks, according to a variety of reports. However, based on the hard facts available to the public, the viability and likelihood of a buyout for BlockFi is still difficult to measure. Celsius (CEL) has faced an uphill battle as the platform has still paused withdrawals for customers. | Source: CEL-USD on TradingView.com Related Reading | Ethereum Loses Steam As Exchange Supply Spikes State Of CeFi: Pulse Check How did we get here? Bear market downturn over the past month or two has caused major pain for CeFi platforms, in a flurry of madness that started with Celsius freezing withdrawals earlier this month amid worries of a bank run and lack of immediate liquidity within the platform’s holdings. BlockFi has undoubtedly faced the heat, too, as FTX provided the firm with a $250M emergency line of credit just last week. While reports across the market suggest that BlockFi has several options on the table, it seems that few will lead down a path that spares equity shareholders of value at present time. Nexo has largely stayed quiet during the chaos, but there’s various internet sleuths who have targeted Nexo with content campaigns around the company’s practices as well. Regardless of how you feel about CeFi, the decline of infrastructure in this bear market shouldn’t be celebrated – we’ll see how it all shakes out when the tides recover. Related Reading | USDC Exchange Reserves Rise As Investors Escape From Bitcoin Featured image from Pixabay, Charts from TradingView.com The writer of this content is not associated or affiliated with any of the parties mentioned in this article. This is not financial advice.

Bitcoin Crypto News

Bitcoin Records Worst Performance For June, Will It Get Better From Here?

Bitcoin performance for the month of June has been nothing short of unremarkable so far. Being a market leader, the other cryptocurrencies in the market have mirrored its movements for the month, leading to massive losses across the board. However, the numbers for June are in and it shows that bitcoin’s performance for the month has been worse in comparison to its altcoin counterparts. Bitcoin Performance Staggers Performance all across the board has been terrible. So far, all of the indexes have come back with double-digits in losses for the month of June, and that is in addition to the subpar performance the market had seen in the prior month. But instead of the expected small cap altcoins returning the worst of the losses, bitcoin has barreled to the forefront to register more losses than any other index. Related Reading | Outflows Rock Bitcoin As Institutional Investors Pull The Plug, More Downside Coming? The pioneer cryptocurrency saw losses touch as high as -35% as the month draws to an end. This has resulted in a decline in the dominance of bitcoin over the broader market after recovering to 48% in early June. BTC dominance is now sitting at 43.69% according to data from TradingView.com. BTC records wost performance for June | Source: Arcane Research Mostly the losses have stemmed from the liquidations of large players in the space. The losses recorded in bitcoin can however be attributed to the fact that creditors focus their efforts on more liquid coins like bitcoin. Thus the losses are more pronounced in the digital asset. Altcoins Suffer In Tandem Although the altcoins in the space have not recorded as many losses as bitcoin, they have seen high losses too. The large cap index is one that follows bitcoin very closely. Hence, the decline in BTC’s price tends to be more pronounced in these digital assets. It is also due to creditors liquidating these coins first due to their high liquidity. So far, the large cap index is down -33% in the same time period. BTC drops to low $20,000s | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com The mid and small cap indexes have done much better compared to their larger counterparts. Their losses still range into double-digits but creditors have held off on liquidating these cryptocurrencies. This is because they tend to be more illiquid and are therefore pushed to the back burner in favor of larger ones such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The mid and small cap indexes have recorded losses of -24% and -22% for the month of June alone. Related Reading | Ethereum Fees Touch Monthly Lows As Transaction Volumes Plummet However, it is not a good prognosis for these small cap altcoins. Given that sell-offs in coins such as bitcoin and Ethereum are nearing an exhaustion point, creditors will turn their attention to smaller altcoins too. And given the fact that they possess less liquidity, liquidations in these digital assets will lead to larger declines in price. Featured image from Film Daily, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com Follow Best Owie on Twitter for market insights, updates, and the occasional funny tweet…

Bitcoin Crypto News

Extreme Fear Remains: Recapping What’s Behind The Crypto Market Panic

The current streak of extreme fear is already the longest ever in crypto history, and it’s continuing on still. Here’s a recap of the major events responsible for this bottom sentiment. Crypto Fear And Greed Index Continues To Point At “Extreme Fear” The “fear and greed index” is an indicator that tells us about the general market sentiment among crypto investors. The metric uses a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred for representing this sentiment. All values below the fifty mark imply a fearful market, while those above the threshold mean investors are greedy right now. End values of above 75 and below 25 indicate extreme sentiments of “extreme greed” and “extreme fear,” respectively. Now, here is a chart from the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, that shows the trend in the crypto fear and greed index over the past year: Looks like the value of the indicator has been very low in recent weeks | Source: Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update – Week 25, 2022 As you can see in the above graph, the current value of the crypto fear and greed index is 10, which suggests the market is extremely fearful at the moment. This run of extreme fear has been going on since more than two months now, and it’s the longest ever such streak in the history of the metric. Related Reading | What Is Bitcoin CFD and How Can It Make You a Profit Even before this latest run of extreme fear, the market sentiment wasn’t particularly well during the rest of 2022. However, it wasn’t still quite as rock bottom as the current streak. So, what’s behind this historically low sentiment? There are a number of market conditions that have lead to it and that are continuing to keep it so. The first event of note is the UST collapse in May. A large stablecoin like Tether USD losing its peg put fear and uncertainty into many investors in the market. Another is the looming macro uncertainties over the market like the possibility of FED hiking rates and the various governments around the world tightening regulations. Related Reading | Bitcoin “Reserve Risk” Metric Approaches All-Time Lows These above factors snowballed into a bottom sentiment and lead to larger consequences over the entire crypto market in the form of the crash. A byproduct of the latest crash was the collapse of Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a cryptocurrency hedge fund. Another was the lender company Celsius halting withdrawals and potentially heading towards bankruptcy. Such negative news is keeping the fear and greed index from recovering from these historic lows. Like a vicious cycle, bad news is leading to more bad news and further fueling the extreme fear sentiment. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $20k, down 1% in the past week. BTC plunges down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research