Bitcoin Crypto News

This Expanding Triangle Pattern Could Be The Last Hope For Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin broke through support and plunged to the lowest prices seen since 2020. However, despite all the fear the drop has caused, it could be the last low before the top cryptocurrency continues its bull run. Here is why an extremely rare Elliott Wave expanding triangle pattern could be the last hope Bitcoin bulls have for new highs before a bear market. Ralph Nelson Elliott And His Theory On How Markets Move Ask most crypto investors and they would probably agree: we are in a bear market. However, based on the guidelines of Elliott Wave Theory, the last year and a half of mostly sideways could be part of one powerful, confusing, and rare corrective pattern. Related Reading | One Coin, Two Trades: Why Bitcoin Futures And Spot Signals Don’t Match Up Elliott Wave Principle was first discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. The theory believes all markets move in the direction of the primary trend in the same five-wave pattern. Odd-numbered waves move up with the primary trend as well, while even-numbered waves are corrective in nature that move against the trend. Is Bitcoin trading in an expanding triangle? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com In the chart above, BTCUSD could potentially be trading in an expanding triangle. In Elliott Wave Theory, triangles of any kind only appear immediately preceding the final move of a sequence. During the bear market, a triangle appeared in place of the B wave before breaking down to the bear market bottom. Identifying A Bullish Expanding Triangle Pattern Triangles can contract, expand, descend, ascend, and even take on some “irregular” shapes. The expanding triangle pictured above and below should in theory only occur before the final wave five impulse up. If that’s the case, the bull run could continue once the bottom of the E wave is put in. Each subwave is a Zig-zag similar to wave two  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com An expanding triangle is characterized as having five waves that sub-divide into ABCDE corrections. Waves A, C, and E are against the primary trend, while B and D waves are with the primary trend. Each sub-wave further sub-divides into three-wave patterns called a Zig-zag. Zig-zag patterns are sharper, and more commonly appear in wave two corrections. The fact that an expanding triangle has five of these brutal corrections in two different directions makes it especially confusing and frustrating. Expanding triangles only form under the most unusual market conditions. Related Reading | Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison Says It Is Almost Time For Bull Season Extreme uncertainty drives expansive volatility in both directions. Both sides of the trade are repeatedly stopped out of trades, adding to frustration. By the end of the pattern, order books are thin and easily overpowered. Decidedly bearish sentiment squeezes prices up quickly causing an upward breakout of the pattern and continuation of the bull run. The chase and FOMO creates the conditions necessary for wave five. Why Bitcoin Could Still Have Wave Five Ahead The only problem is that there is no telling if this is the correct pattern, or if Bitcoin is in (or possibly just completed) a wave four according to Elliott Wave Theory. Knowing that triangles only appear before the final move of a sequence helps improve the changes of this expanding triangle being valid. However, it is more important to understand the characteristics of each wave. Corrective waves result in ABC or ABCDE corrections (along with some more complex corrections) that move against the primary trend. Between corrections is an impulse wave up, in a five-wave stair-stepping pattern. After the bear market bottom, a new trend emerges starting with wave one. Wave two is often a sharp, Zig-zag style correction that retraces most of wave one. A bear market will move below the zero line on the MACD  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com The lack of a new low creates the confidence for more market participants to join, making wave three the most powerful and extended of all. Wave four typically moves sideways and lacks the same severity of the wave two correction. Elliott said that wave four represents hesitancy in the market before finishing the trend. Both wave two and wave four tend to bring the MACD back down to the zero line before reversing higher – a setup clearly depicted above. Related Reading | Bitcoin Indicator Hits Historical Low Not Seen Since 2015 When the hesitancy ends, wave five typically matches the length and magnitude of wave one. But after such a long and nasty wave four correction, any wave five has the potential to extend similar to wave three. If this were the case, the expanding triangle pattern created the perfect shakeout of both sides of the market. Here is a 🧵 on my full Elliott Wave analysis on #Bitcoin and why I don’t believe there is a bear market – and why I expect the last leg up any day now. — Tony "The Bull" Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) May 15, 2022 Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Crypto News

Bitcoin Perfectly Follows Market Cycle Comparison, What Comes Next For Crypto?

Bitcoin price continues to stagnate and move sideways, but according to the cryptocurrency following an Elliott Wave market cycle, a break in the boredom is due soon. Price action follows the predicted path so perfectly, that when layering Bitcoin directly over the comparison, there is little room for doubt about what comes next for crypto.  Take a look for yourself and decide. All About Elliott Wave Theory And The Guideline of Alternation Bitcoin is maturing with each passing bull cycle, but it remains a speculative asset. As such, narratives tend to drive the price action. When the cryptocurrency is bullish, it moves in a powerful parabolic impulse up. When things are bearish, the rollercoaster ride turns scary and many get ejected along the way. Markets might seem like an unpredictable rollercoaster at times, but on several time scales, they can be quite predictable. In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott developed what he referred to as Wave Principle. According to Wikipedia, “Elliott stated that, while stock market prices may appear random and unpredictable, they actually follow predictable, natural laws, and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers.” Related Reading | Now Or Never: Bitcoin Builds Base At Decade-Long Parabolic Curve Today, the study is more commonly referred to at Elliott Wave Theory. Each “wave” has a specific type of characteristic and guidelines. Waves alternate between bullish and bearish phases. Odd numbered phases are impulse waves that move in the primary trend direction, while even numbered waves are corrective phases that move against the primary trend. In addition to waves alternating between positive and negative growth, they also alternate in their degree of severity. And according to the Guideline of Alternation, one correction is typically sharp, while the other is flat or sideways. When this exact example is projected over Bitcoin price action the path ahead looks a lot more clear. If Bitcoin continues to follow the path, what comes next? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com What Is Next For Bitcoin When The Flat-Style Correction Ends? The length of each correction is also different, according to Elliott Wave Theory. Sharp corrections tend to be over with a lot faster than a flat-style correction, which painfully grinds sideways. The market itself still has a sort of post-traumatic bear market syndrome from the severity of the sharp style correction, that it is expects the market to behave in the same manner yet again. Related Reading | Time Vs Price: Why This Bitcoin Correction Was The Most Painful Yet However, according to the Guideline of Alternation, the probability of two of the same type of corrections is extremely low. In rare situations, two sideways corrections occur, but never two sharp corrections. This suggests that whenever Bitcoin price finally does turn around, the corrective wave four should be complete and the grand finale wave five will begin. What happens after wave five is complete? Another bear market, and likely the worst and longest in the history of Bitcoin. Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Crypto News

Bitcoin Mimics Textbook Market Sentiment Cycle, What Happens When Confidence Returns?

Markets are cyclical and go through alternating periods of positive and negative sentiment, with price action following the tone across the market. Although these changes appear to be difficult to predict, Bitcoin price is currently following a textbook market sentiment cycle chart from the book The Nature of Risk. If what follows in the book continues across the cryptocurrency market, a major trend change is due. Take a closer look at the market sentiment cycle chart by Justin Mamis. Is Bitcoin Following A Textbook Market Sentiment Cycle? Markets tend to move in the same way. This is why certain technical analysis chart patterns can yield accurate results with an increased probability. When zoomed out, even market cycles tend to advance in the same five-wave structure, according to Elliott Wave Theory. Those who dive deepest into technical analysis become convinced of its power to not only predict market behavior, but human behavior as well. Related Reading | Bitcoin Weekly Momentum Flips Bullish For First Time In 2022 Ralph Nelson Elliott who came up with the theory also wrote a book on the secret of the universe he referred to as “nature’s law.” Another author with plenty of stock market experience, Justin Mamis, also recognized these ties and penned the book The Nature of Risk: Stock Market Survival & the Meaning of Life. The market sentiment cycle chart below can be found within its pages. Bitcoin versus Justin Mamis’ market sentiment cycle chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com All About Justin Mamis And Market Sentiment Cycles Juxtaposed next to the Bitcoin line chart, is the same chart presented by Justin Mamis that highlights the many phases and emotions felt during a market sentiment cycle. At the height of enthusiasm, buying the dip failing to be effective was a sign a trend change was due. Below the highest support lines breaking down caused the market to enter a stage of disbelief. Disbelief turns into panic, and as the asset bottoms out, the market becomes discouraged at the lack of movement. Related Reading | This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead At aversion, investors even feel a strong sense of dislike toward the asset and might even want to see new lows as a result. It is at this point when confidence begins to return and bearish traders are left in denial. Justin Mamis is the former Assistant Director of the NYSE Floor Department, former Senior Vice President and Chief Market Technician at Hancock, and appeared frequently in Barron’s and The Wall Street Journal. In his own words, Mamis said in a newsletter: A cycle begins with stocks climbing “a wall of worry,” and ends when there is no worry anymore. Even after the rise tops out, investors continue to believe that they should buy the dips…Unwillingness to believe in that change marks the first phase down: “It’s just another buying opportunity.” The second, realistic, phase down is the passage from bullish to bearish sentiment…Selling begins to make sense. It culminates with the third phase: investors, in disgust,…dump right near the eventual low in the conviction that the bad news is never going to stop… Don’t believe the chart represents what could happen in Bitcoin? Well, then do the conditions in sentiment follow what Mamis told investors? Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com